Modeling studies concerning permafrost degradation under climate warming predict positive feedbacks operating through the methane release from the organic matter and methane-hydrates currently in the frozen state into the atmosphere, where it operate as a strong greenhouse gas. Direct measurements of methane concentration in the Kolyma Lowland permafrost allowed us to account for the permafrost methane pool. The modeling using INMCM climate model allowed forecasting the seasonally thawing layer thickness changes by the year 2100. A simple model accounting for methane diffusion and plant transport helped to answer the question whether permafrost methane could significantly contribute to an increase in the atmospheric concentration. This study estimates the maximal emission possible from permafrost of the study area if additional methane production from the soil organic matter is not taken into account. This flux appears negligible in the planetary methane budget.

Ключевые слова: climate change, permafrost, methane emission, measurements, modeling, planetary methane budget